:
Good afternoon, committee. This is meeting number seven of the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development. It is Wednesday, March 4, 2009.
Today we again meet to consider the report from our steering committee, a little later on. We are continuing our review of key elements of Canadian foreign policy.
Our witness in the first hour is Paul Heinbecker, former ambassador and permanent representative of Canada to the United Nations. He is currently director of the international relations and communications program at the Centre for International Governance Innovation.
In our second hour, by video conference, we have, from the University of British Columbia, Professor Michael Byers. He holds the Canada research chair in global politics and international law.
Our committee provides time for an opening statement of approximately 10 minutes, and then we go into the first round of questioning.
Mr. Heinbecker, I don't know how many times you've appeared before our committee. I can tell you that every time you're here we appreciate it. And we appreciate your experience, your expertise in our field of study today. We welcome you to our committee.
We apologize for the late start. As I've mentioned, before the meeting today we had a number of tributes to a former Speaker of the House, Gib Parent. I know some of our committee members are still there.
We are aware you may have to leave a little early. We look forward to your comments.
:
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
Merci. I'm going to speak very briefly, I hope—for me that's a big challenge—and I have three basic propositions and five or six or seven things Canada can do. So I'll try to speak about those. It might be a little bit provocative, but it should at least be quick.
The first proposition is that if we believe in ourselves, there's a lot we can do in this world. I find it very distressing every time I hear Canada talked about as a middle power, every time we regard ourselves as little Canada and ask what we can do. There's plenty we can do if we believe in ourselves.
The second proposition is that the more effective we are in the world, the more we're going to be listened to in Washington; and the more we're listened to in Washington, the more effective we are going to be in the world. So an effective independent foreign policy both serves our purposes more broadly in the world and it helps us to get along on our bilateral agenda with Washington.
A number of times in the course of my career, when we went down to Washington to complain about softwood lumber or talk about an entire agenda of bilateral issues with the Secretary of State, I've seen us get.... We don't get a frosty reply; we get a courteous response, but we don't get much engagement on that. If the United States is the pre-eminent power in the world, it's a big job and they need help, and they appreciate a foreign policy that is effective.
The third thing I would say is that to be effective in that world we need to invest in diplomacy. That's one of the things we haven't been doing, and in fact we've been disinvesting, or de-investing, in diplomacy. The budgets have been going down for the foreign affairs department. There are a lot of strains on the department, and at the same time, the diplomatic challenges are getting bigger and bigger, as I'll mention in a moment.
I'll say a few words about Obama, the man, because I think we don't forget about it, but perhaps we don't credit enough just how different a person this guy is. He's the most cosmopolitan President the U.S. has ever elected, with a Kenyan father, a family still in Kenya. His mother spent most of her life working abroad with an American NGO and took him with her. He went to school in Indonesia with Muslim kids and to high school in Hawaii, which is the multicultural centre of the United States and hardly either the mainland or the mainstream. It produces a different kind of mind.
Think for a second what the alternative was. It was Senator McCain, grandson and son of admirals. He went to the naval academy and joined the navy. When he left the navy, he went into the Congress, worked in the Senate foreign relations committee. His whole career was national security. It's a very different mindset from the one Obama brings, and I think we really have to get our minds around that.
This is what Obama said, and it's a quote that I think is very apt:
If you don't understand other cultures, then it is very hard for you to make good foreign policy decisions. Foreign policy is all about judgment. The benefit of my life, of having both lived overseas and travelled overseas...is I have a better sense of how people are thinking and what their society is really like. A lot of my knowledge about foreign affairs isn't just what I studied in school...it's not just the work I do on the Senate foreign relations committee. It's actually having the knowledge of how ordinary people in these other countries live.
You could say the same thing about diplomacy. That is one of the strengths diplomacy brings. It's a worldliness, and it's part of the new world we're going to be living in.
So if the world is really changing, how does the world see the United States? It's no secret. If you look at the various polls, the Pew poll in particular—the Pew series of polls since the year 2000—the single most unmistakable finding is that the U.S. has an enormous deficit in public perceptions around the world. They've interviewed 175,000 people in 54 countries. This was not a one-day-a-year Gallup question. They've suffered everywhere, including in the major industrialized countries, where they're blamed for the Iraq war and for the way things are going in Afghanistan. They're blamed for the crisis we're in now in finance, climate change, and terrorism and the excesses of the terrorism conflict.
In Turkey, which was one of the United States' most sympathetic and faithful allies, the numbers went down to single digits in those seven years. But there is now 12% support for the United States. The recovery you're seeing--it's still not very big but it's there--is coming, and the judgment is that it's because of Obama. He is changing the way people think. Not surprisingly, the western country that was most positive about the United States and Obama, of all of the countries interviewed in an Ipsos Reid poll, was Canada.
So we now have a different situation. Where we used to have an American leader who was reviled in the world, we have now one who's admired, whom everybody wants to see succeed, whom everybody sees as an iconic figure. I invite you to listen to what comedian Bill Maher said:
The rest of the world can go back to being completely jealous of America. Yes, our majority white country just freely elected a black President; something no other democracy has ever done. Take that, Canada!
Obama is a man of his time and the world hopes for his time, but to paraphrase Bob Dylan, those times they are a-changing. The era of the single superpower is passing into history. The United States is going to be pre-eminent but not predominant.
Depending on who you listen to...if it's Kishore Mahbubani it's only for the last 200 years, if it's Fareed Zakaria it's the last 300 years. But we forget in the west that Asia not being at the centre of international affairs is the exception, not the rule. It's only been since the Industrial Revolution that Europe and the west have predominated.
There's an interesting figure in a book by Kishore Mahbubani about the Industrial Revolution. This is to give you the sense of how much things are changing:
They called it the Industrial Revolution because, for the first time in all of human history, standards of living rose at a rate where there were noticeable changes within a human life span--changes of perhaps 50%. At current growth rates in Asia, standards of living may rise 100-fold within a human life span.
We're looking at not just a sea change but a total structural transformation. This is not news to everybody, but it's worth remembering. China, Japan, and India rank second, third, and fourth in the world in purchasing power parity. Japan and China rank first and second in the holdings of U.S. treasuries. Economic power may not be shifting; it may have already shifted. Russia is back, Africa has been making progress, the Latin Americans are getting to sit at the top tables, and the European Union is still one of the richest places on earth. But the takeaway point is this: American dominance will diminish, even with President Obama. America will be pre-eminent but not predominant.
That's why Mrs. Clinton in her confirmation hearing said:
Now, in 2009, the clear lesson of the last twenty years is that we must both combat the threats and seize the opportunities of our interdependence. And to be effective in doing so we must build a world with more partners and fewer adversaries. America cannot solve the most pressing problems on our own, and the world cannot solve them without America.
Then she went on to talk about how important it is to invest in diplomacy.
Even under Secretary Rice there was an enormous increase in resources directed to the State Department. Now under Secretary Clinton there's going to be a further effort made, and I'd like you to contrast that. The U.S. administration believes that the U.S. needs to invest in its capacity to conduct diplomacy, provide foreign assistance of the kind the situation requires, reach out to the world, and operate effectively along with the military. That sounds very familiar to us in Ottawa. The challenges are nearly identical, but the response is worth looking at.
The State Department's budget is growing; the foreign affairs department's budget is shrinking. Our aid budgets are more or less static.
What can we do, then? I have five or six things Canada can do.
We can invest in our diplomacy.
We can believe in our ability to make a difference, which is why you would invest.
I don't know how controversial the following point is. We shouldn't change foreign ministers every year. And we shouldn't engage, by the way, in light-switch diplomacy every time we change a foreign minister. “Light-switch diplomacy” was coined by George Schultz and it means that you change your policy every time you get a new Secretary of State. Well, we've had that tendency as well in Canada.
If you're going to get the relationship right with Washington, we have to get the embassy right. One of the things we need is for the embassy to re-engage in American foreign policy. If you look at the way the Canadian embassy has conducted itself, in recent years particularly, it's been all bilateral. They really haven't played on the international agenda very much. And in doing that, you're basically disarming yourself, because the strongest card we have to play probably these days is Afghanistan. That may also be a controversial assertion in this group.
If we have a foreign policy and we have people in the embassy whose job it is to deal with senior Americans at a foreign policy level.... I can tell you that the British do that, the French do that, the Germans do that, the Russians do that, the Chinese do that, and the Indians do that. Everybody I can think of tries to do that, because it's all part of taking your responsibility seriously and taking responsibility for what's going on in the world.
I'll throw out a line in case anybody wants to follow up on it. I'm not a fan of the idea of a secretariat in the embassy in which we have federal-provincial representation. I think it confuses people in Washington about who's who and what they're doing and who they're speaking for.
I won't dwell on what we can do economically. I think a very important lesson is the G20.
How much time do I have left?
:
Under the heading of what Canada can do in Afghanistan, I had these, of course: continue to train Afghan forces, which is the main mission of the Canadian Forces there now; continue to strengthen Afghan institutions, which is a job in part that has to happen in Kabul. And that's where I got into the business of appointing a special envoy contact over there.
I think the issue is not diplomacy vis-à-vis Afghanistan. I think it's a question about what's going on among our allies, what's going on among the countries in the region. There used to be a six-nation group trying to supervise, or handle, developments in Afghanistan. It was, if I remember correctly: United States, Russia, China, Britain--I'm not quite sure anymore. But it's clear there won't be a solution to the Afghanistan issue without some kind of resolution or some kind of better outcomes on Pakistan.
It's also clear that the relationship with Iran can be very important. It can be constructive or it can be destructive, depending on how things are going. By the way, I don't think we're being excessively critical of Iran and I think we should find some way of re-engaging with Iran. I'm perfectly aware of Madam Kazemi's situation, how completely corrupt the Iranian response to that was. I don't have any doubt about that. I also don't have any doubt about Iranian influence in Iraq. But at the same time, we have interests in Afghanistan, and I think engaging with the Iranians, for example, is one part of the diplomacy.
I think the other part is, among the major allies, to try to play a role to get engaged and influence their thinking. That's also part of diplomacy: influence Washington's thinking, influence the British thinking, influence the Germans and the French, and so on. Somehow we have to also make an impact in Pakistan, as I was saying. That, I find, is the most difficult problem of all. If you asked me exactly how to do that, I'm not sure I could answer it. I just do think that without some sort of better relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan, this can go on forever.
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Yes, I do have some suggestions, and they proceed from the reality that people are talking about nuclear disarmament.
During the Bush administration, they talked about arms control. They talked about a lot of things. They didn't talk about disarmament, but that is back on the agenda now as a conversation between the Russians and the United States. And in due course, it's going to have to be more than just the Russians and the United States. But there are moves afoot to reduce nuclear weapons between them.
I think we should be supporting and encouraging that as much as we can. We should get ready to play a constructive role. There's going to a review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2010. That treaty has languished under the Bush administration's leadership. Now Obama wants to reinforce it. It's manifestly in our interests to do that.
The same thing goes for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. We can be active diplomatically in trying to get people to ratify that. The fissile material cut-off treaty, and a weapons in space treaty, these are all things the Canadian government has done in the past and has the expertise to do. This is a game that we can play; we have the people. On an issue like the fuel cycle, for example, where the questions are, should countries get access to nuclear fuel, and should that be done internationally, and is it a way of avoiding the problems that Iran is creating, we have something to say about that. We're a major uranium exporter, we're a major nuclear technology exporter, and I think that's something we should participate in.
So a lot can be done under the rubric of arms control and disarmament. And I just want to say for one second that this is not pie-in-the-sky stuff. The people who were advocating these things very recently in The Wall Street Journal, of all papers, twice were George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, William Perry, and Sam Nunn. These are people with a lot of experience, who are very realistic and who think something has to be done about the number of nuclear weapons and the fact they're on hair triggers, or nearly hair triggers, and so on.
So it is an important issue. It is an issue the Obama administration is going to push, and it is one that suits our interests, and we have the expertise to play on it.
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In our second hour, by video conference, we're pleased to have, from the University of British Columbia, Professor Michael Byers. He holds a Canada research chair in global politics and international law.
Mr. Byers, we look forward to your comments. We don't have a perfect connection, but we look forward to your comments, and then we will go into the first round of questioning. We have had some difficulty to connect with your line, Mr. Byers, and even now we're still experiencing some technical difficulties. Can you hear me?
We aren't certain we can hear you. Can you speak into your microphone? We have someone on our roof trying to adjust the satellite dish—
Some hon. members: Oh, oh!
The Chair: Welcome. We finally hear your much welcomed voice.
We've been looking forward to hearing your testimony, Mr. Byers. We've already introduced you and the position that you hold. We will just move right into your testimony, if that's possible. We are doing a study of the key elements of Canadian foreign policy at the present time, with a focus on Canada-U.S. relationship and foreign policy. So we look forward to your comments, and we would move into a round of questions.
I will warn you right now, Mr. Byers, that at 5:30 our time, which is in 45 minutes, we will have a vote in the House of Commons, so we'll have to cut it short, right on the half hour, right at 2:30 your time if you're in B.C.
We look forward to your comments. Welcome.
:
Thank you very much. Thank you for inviting me to speak and for allowing me to do so by video conference today. By staying in Vancouver, I'm able to address another even more intimidating audience later this afternoon in the form of 150 undergraduate students.
The issue of Canada-U.S. relations is very close to my heart. My two children were born in Durham, North Carolina, where I was a professor of international law and the director of the Center for Canadian Studies at Duke University. They are, as a result, U.S. citizens, and I hope they will serve both their countries well.
Barack Obama clearly cares about Canada-U.S. relations too, having said “I love this country” during his recent visit to Ottawa. I believe the straightforward expression of affection is rooted not just in President Obama's family connections but also in his awareness of the historically important role of Canada as the terminus of the underground railroad; as a long-time proponent of human rights, international law, and multilateral diplomacy; and as a model of successful multiculturalism and universal public health care.
I also believe the comment indicates awareness on President Obama's part of just how important Canada could be to achieving his economic, environmental, and foreign policy goals.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has placed smart power at the centre of the Obama administration's foreign policy. According to this approach, influences derive from many factors, including diplomacy, cooperation, a good reputation, and economic vitality. And smart power plays to Canada's strengths, which are truly multi-faceted.
Geographically, we are the second largest country in the world. We have the eighth largest economy. We are the United States' largest trading partner. We have a population of 33 million well-educated, globally connected people. Our military is small but highly competent. Our foreign service is among the very best. Seen through the lens of smart power, Canada has considerable potential influence that could and should be exercised on behalf of our own citizens, the international community, and, on issues of common cause, the United States.
Afghanistan is clearly an issue of common cause. The Canadian Forces have suffered the highest casualty rate per soldier of all the allied troops in that country. The deaths, injuries, and other demands of the mission have prompted retired Major-General Lewis MacKenzie to conclude that “Canada will not be capable of remaining in Afghanistan in a combat role beyond 2011”.
Fortunately, President Obama is already applying the concept of smart power to Afghanistan. The appointment of Richard Holbrooke as his envoy is a clear indication of just how important the diplomatic angle has become. And while President Obama is increasing the number of troops in Afghanistan, he is actually cutting, by around 100,000, the number of U.S. soldiers deployed abroad. The end result is that Canadian soldiers are less needed than they might have been before.
Consistent with the concept of smart power, we can and should offer to contribute in other ways. Our diplomats could help negotiate with tribal and insurgent leaders as well as with regional actors, such as Iran, India, and Pakistan. CIDA could provide more reconstruction assistance. The RCMP could do more to assist in the training of Afghan police.
All indications are that the Obama administration has made the same calculation and that pressure will not be applied to keep Canadian soldiers in a combat role in Afghanistan after 2011. So there is no reason whatsoever to even consider another extension.
On the economy, President Obama is demonstrating extraordinary leadership in addressing the global economic crisis, but I believe that he's looking for more international support for his economic stimulus and almost certainly for much more from Canada.
According to the parliamentary budget officer, the net effect of Canada's stimulus plan is equivalent to just 0.7% of GDP, which is just one-quarter of President Obama's package and less than half of the stimulus recommended by the International Monetary Fund.
The Great Depression led to the creation of the World Bank, the IMF, and GATT. The current crisis is likely to generate similar international institutional reforms, including mechanisms for regulating banks, stock exchanges, and currency speculators. Canada could play a major role here developing and circulating concrete proposals that could then be used as the basis for collective decision-making.
Canada could also seize on President Obama's declared intent to bring labour and environmental standards into the main body of NAFTA. Such changes would work to this country's comparative advantage since we already have relatively robust standards, and particularly so if the practice of including such standards spreads to other trade agreements, such as the WTO.
The environment is a key economic issue, because the environment is the foundation on which all human activity takes place.
Sir Nicholas Stern made the point in his report on climate change to then British Prime Minister Tony Blair, that every dollar spent on mitigating climate change now will save $20 of expenditure in 2050. President Obama understands this. Shortly after his election, he confirmed that the United States would “help lead the world towards a new era of global co-operation on climate change. Now,” he said, “is the time to confront this challenge once and for all. Delay is no longer an option. Denial is no longer an acceptable response. The stakes are too high, the consequences too serious.”
At the same time, every crisis creates opportunity; in this case, to move through the next industrial revolution into a new economy based on non-hydrocarbon sources of energy. It is hugely significant that President Obama has appointed Steven Chu, the Nobel-prize-winning physicist, as his Secretary of Energy.
The tide has changed, and Canada, I'm afraid, risks being left high and dry. Already we're seeing a profound shift in public opinion in the United States. This month's issue of National Geographic is only part of that. And so the question is, are we willing to lead together on climate change, or will Canada condemn itself to reluctantly and eventually follow?
The Arctic, my final issue, is not a priority for the Obama administration because it knows that international cooperation there is already well advanced. Last May, the five Arctic Ocean countries--Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and the United States--collectively affirmed their commitment to the Law of the Sea and the “orderly settlement of any possible overlapping claims”.
And with all respect, the Canadian government does everyone a disservice by feeding the media interest in conflict stories, such as the comments last week after two Russian bombers exercised the right that every country has to fly in international airspace.
It's important to remember that as recently as November 2007 Prime Minister Harper and the Russian Prime Minister issued a joint statement on cooperation in the Arctic. And since then, Canadian and Russian diplomats and scientists have been working together as both countries exercise their unchallenged rights to define the outer limits of their extended continental shelves under the Arctic Ocean.
Canada is also cooperating closely with the United States in the Arctic. In 1988 we established procedures for coast guard icebreaker transits through the Northwest Passage and declared them to be “without prejudice to the legal dispute”. Three years ago we expanded the NORAD agreement to include joint maritime surveillance over the Northwest Passage, and the two countries have been jointly mapping the floor of the Beaufort Sea, using U.S. and Canadian icebreakers.
In the one minute I have left, let me just say that there's much more that could be done. Canada could, and should, follow the lead of the United States in making public all of the data being gathered by its scientists concerning the extended continental shelf to ensure that common data sets are used by countries with potential overlapping claims, and we should also be engaging the United States on the Northwest Passage before the increasing traffic causes a diplomatic crisis.
One year ago, former U.S. ambassador Paul Cellucci and I demonstrated that negotiations could be quite fruitful. In a day and a half of mock negotiations, our two teams of non-government experts identified nine concrete ways in which the two countries could cooperate and build confidence in the Northwest Passage. Similar negotiations could also lead to a mutually agreeable resolution to the maritime boundary dispute in the Beaufort Sea.
Although for decades the relationship between Canada and the United States has been understood as involving a degree of dependence or even subservience, the economic and environmental crises have changed much of that. To his great credit, President Obama is showing international leadership. This is no time for celebration, however, for the same crises have created immense shared perils that require our two countries to work together regardless of whether we need each other as much as we might have before. I believe the United States needs Canada desperately today, and I hope very much that you will recommend we do all that we can.
Thank you.
:
Thank you for those very pertinent questions.
On the Northwest Passage, I think both countries have tenable arguments. I wouldn't want to litigate this because the risks of losing would be too high, and I believe the United States would take the exact same view, that this should be dealt with through negotiation, not litigation or arbitration.
Therefore, it's not a question of which is the stronger legal argument; it's how we resolve the dispute in a way that works for both sides. Whether it's environmental protection, which has historically been Canada's main interest, or a concern about North American security, which is the United States' main interest, I think there's a credible argument to be made, and Mr. Cellucci and I have made it. We should seek to negotiate a bilateral agreement that recognizes Canadian sovereignty and jurisdiction over those waters in return for some concrete commitments by Canada to policing that waterway and making it a safe international shipping route--not an international strait, but a shipping route something like the St. Lawrence Seaway, which is carefully managed with sufficient infrastructure to ensure that ships can pass safely through to everyone's economic interest, and at the same time have security threats dealt with and deterred.
That's what we should do on the Northwest Passage. I'm afraid the Canadian position right now, which is essentially to not open up that issue and just let time take its course, is very risky because there is increased activity and we're likely to see our legal position called into question, not necessarily by the United States but perhaps by some other actor.
On the Beaufort Sea, I think there will be pressure to resolve that dispute from multinational oil companies that will want to explore in the disputed 6,000-square-mile sector. Again, there are perfectly acceptable ways of resolving that. One is to declare it a joint hydrocarbon zone, as other countries have done in similar situations, and actually share the royalties and have a joint environmental assessment and permit-issuing process. Or you could simply draw a line right down the middle of the disputed zone and leave it at that.
It's not an issue that should cause any concern or hostility between the two countries. As it happens, thanks to chapter 6 of NAFTA we're in a common energy market anyway. So EnCana is just as likely to drill on the U.S. side of the eventual line as an American oil company is. Again, cooperation and the realization that we have common interests need to be at the forefront here. Above all, we shouldn't be afraid to deal with the United States on this. We're a major Arctic country. When it comes to energy we are their largest supplier, so I think we could negotiate in good faith and expect a good result.
:
Yes, absolutely. I think we do ourselves and the United States a disservice by postponing diplomatic engagement on this issue.
Postponing diplomatic engagement was a viable option 20 years ago, before the ice started to melt. But during the last two summers the Northwest Passage has been wide open. There are European cruise ships sailing through on a regular basis, without any ice-strengthening capability. I mean, they go through just as regular cruise ships. So we need serious search and rescue there. We need to have very good charts to guide people. We need excellent weather tracking and reporting skills. We need to have a policing function there. These are all things every country would want us to have. And by providing those capabilities, by providing a safe Northwest Passage, we strengthen our claim to actually have jurisdiction, to have sovereignty there.
But our big impediment in doing all that is the fact that historically the United States has opposed our legal position, has argued that any ship from any country has an unrestricted right of access to the Northwest Passage. And that simply does not make sense, either for us or for the United States. The only thing worse for the United States is actually to say, okay, Canada, you can have sovereignty over the Northwest Passage--and then see us do absolutely nothing to protect either our interests or theirs.
So we have to step up to the plate with some serious investments, including things like search and rescue. And in conjunction with that, we have to negotiate with the United States to make them realize that as partners in the defence of North America, it makes sense for the coastal state on both sides of the Northwest Passage to take on that particular responsibility: Canadian sovereignty, through investments and through diplomatic engagement.
And I not only believe this, but I've tested it with Paul Cellucci. We had a day and a half of pretty hard-nosed negotiations with the very best teams of non-governmental experts we could find. We didn't solve the underlying sovereignty dispute, but we came up with nine concrete recommendations that would, if implemented, take us nine-tenths of the way there.