Thank you very much, Mr. Chair and members of the committee. It's a pleasure to be here.
It's my first appearance before the environment committee. I have to admit that I'm a bit nervous seeing unknown faces and not knowing what to expect yet, but so far I have a very good impression, so I'm becoming less and less nervous.
Thank you for the invitation. I'm pleased to be here, as I said, for my first appearance to discuss the analysis of our report on the federal carbon pricing system, which was published at the end of April.
I'm joined by Jason Jacques, who is the director general in my office. Together we'll try to respond to your questions to the best of our capacity.
As you know, the Parliamentary Budget Officer provides parliamentarians with independent and non-partisan economic and financial analyses. As the legislation indicates, we provide those analyses to raise the quality of parliamentary debate and promote greater financial transparency and accountability.
In accordance with the mandate I have been given, my office has produced a fiscal and distributional analysis of the federal carbon pricing as implemented in Ontario, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Our report provides an independent estimate of the revenues generated under the federal carbon pricing system. It also estimates the net fiscal impact on households in different income groups in the four provinces that do not have carbon pricing plans that meet federal standards.
Based on our analysis, we estimate that the federal government will generate $2.6 billion in carbon pricing revenues in 2019-20. The vast majority of these revenues, $2.4 billion, will be generated through the fuel charge, and the balance, roughly $200 million, will be generated by output-based pricing. In addition, we estimate that by 2023-24, carbon pricing revenues will increase to $6.2 billion, with fuel charge proceeds accounting for $5.77 billion, and OBPS—which I much prefer to “output-based pricing”, which I have a hard time pronouncing—accounting for the rest.
Our report also studied the impact of the carbon price on households, based on annual income level and region. Regions currently using carbon-intensive energy, such as Saskatchewan, can expect higher costs.
The federal government has stated that all proceeds from the fuel charge will be returned directly to households and to particularly affected sectors in Ontario, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Our findings indicate that under the government's proposed climate action incentive payments plan, most households will receive more than what they paid in fuel charges.
Before proceeding to your questions, I'd like to take a moment to inform the committee of our next publication. Tomorrow morning, we will be releasing our latest carbon pricing analysis report. This report will provide an independent estimate of the additional carbon price that would be needed to achieve Canada's greenhouse gas emissions target in 2030 under the Paris Agreement, as well as an estimate of the corresponding impact on the Canadian economy.
I don't typically use the full 10 minutes and I don't plan to deviate from that, as I would like to let you ask as many questions as you want. Jason and I would be pleased to respond to any questions you may have regarding our fiscal and distributional analysis of the federal carbon pricing system report or other PBO analysis, but I should state that I will probably be very reluctant to take questions from Mr. Fisher, given the jersey that he wears today.
Some hon. members: Oh, oh!
Mr. Yves Giroux: Thank you.