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Yves Giroux
View Yves Giroux Profile
Yves Giroux
2021-01-27 17:12
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
We thank the committee for this invitation to appear. We are pleased to be here today to discuss our recent economic and fiscal analysis related to your study of the government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
With me today I have Xiaoyi Yan, Director, Budgetary Analysis, and Trevor Shaw, Director, Fiscal Analysis.
Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer's mandate to provide independent, non-partisan analysis to Parliament, my office has been working diligently since last March to provide parliamentarians with reliable estimates of the impacts of the unprecedented COVID-19 response spending on the government's finances and the Canadian economy. We have also published independent cost estimates of a number of components of the government's COVID-19 economic response plan.
On December 10, we released our assessment of the government's fall economic statement 2020. Our report identifies several key issues to assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, as well as updated fiscal and economic projections.
While the economic outlook presented in the fall economic statement 2020 is broadly in line with our latest projections, we project that budgetary deficits will be $5 billion larger, on average, over the next five years. These larger deficits are primarily due to weaker economic and fiscal assumptions, partly offset by lower cost estimates of measures included in the government's COVID-19 economic response plan.
In terms of transparency, the government's fall economic statement does include elements that are essential for credible fiscal planning and scrutiny, such as a detailed five-year fiscal outlook. However, the fall economic statement falls short on transparency in a few areas, such as the absence of a fiscal anchor, the lack of clear thresholds for the fiscal guardrails and the lack of detail related to the employment insurance operating account.
In addition to our report, my office has also released independent cost estimates of selected measures contained in the fall economic statement, including the Canada emergency wage subsidy and Canada emergency rent subsidy programs. We plan to publish additional cost estimates in the coming days, with three that are to be released tomorrow.
Finally, I would also like to take this opportunity to provide members with a brief update on our progress on the cost analysis of building the Canadian surface combatants and building the FREMM, the type 31e and other possible competing ships. Our analysis continues to advance, and we expect to deliver the report to this committee by the end of February, as planned.
We would be pleased to respond to any questions you may have regarding our analysis of the government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic or other PBO work.
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
View Pierre Paul-Hus Profile
CPC (QC)
If it is possible, could you send us the information you have on that? I personally have no other way of finding out more.
My next question is about the economic update. You talked a lot about transparency. In your opening statement, you mentioned again that transparency was an issue. Since you were here on December 10, have you been able to get any more information on the various expenditures in order to update your books?
Yves Giroux
View Yves Giroux Profile
Yves Giroux
2021-01-27 17:17
Actually, since December, there has not been much progress. We have had some additional information, but the holiday season was a break for a lot of people, including many of the people who usually provide us with information. From mid-December to mid-January we did not receive much additional data. We did receive some updates from some government departments, including Canadian Heritage and Environment and Climate Change Canada. So we have made some progress.
In my opening remarks, I mentioned some of the concerns I had about the fall fiscal and economic update, such as the lack of fiscal benchmarks and the lack of transparency on projected deficits in the employment insurance operating account. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, those concerns are still valid.
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