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Results: 1 - 15 of 16
Yves Giroux
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Yves Giroux
2021-01-27 17:12
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
We thank the committee for this invitation to appear. We are pleased to be here today to discuss our recent economic and fiscal analysis related to your study of the government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
With me today I have Xiaoyi Yan, Director, Budgetary Analysis, and Trevor Shaw, Director, Fiscal Analysis.
Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer's mandate to provide independent, non-partisan analysis to Parliament, my office has been working diligently since last March to provide parliamentarians with reliable estimates of the impacts of the unprecedented COVID-19 response spending on the government's finances and the Canadian economy. We have also published independent cost estimates of a number of components of the government's COVID-19 economic response plan.
On December 10, we released our assessment of the government's fall economic statement 2020. Our report identifies several key issues to assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, as well as updated fiscal and economic projections.
While the economic outlook presented in the fall economic statement 2020 is broadly in line with our latest projections, we project that budgetary deficits will be $5 billion larger, on average, over the next five years. These larger deficits are primarily due to weaker economic and fiscal assumptions, partly offset by lower cost estimates of measures included in the government's COVID-19 economic response plan.
In terms of transparency, the government's fall economic statement does include elements that are essential for credible fiscal planning and scrutiny, such as a detailed five-year fiscal outlook. However, the fall economic statement falls short on transparency in a few areas, such as the absence of a fiscal anchor, the lack of clear thresholds for the fiscal guardrails and the lack of detail related to the employment insurance operating account.
In addition to our report, my office has also released independent cost estimates of selected measures contained in the fall economic statement, including the Canada emergency wage subsidy and Canada emergency rent subsidy programs. We plan to publish additional cost estimates in the coming days, with three that are to be released tomorrow.
Finally, I would also like to take this opportunity to provide members with a brief update on our progress on the cost analysis of building the Canadian surface combatants and building the FREMM, the type 31e and other possible competing ships. Our analysis continues to advance, and we expect to deliver the report to this committee by the end of February, as planned.
We would be pleased to respond to any questions you may have regarding our analysis of the government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic or other PBO work.
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Yves Giroux
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Yves Giroux
2021-01-27 17:17
Actually, since December, there has not been much progress. We have had some additional information, but the holiday season was a break for a lot of people, including many of the people who usually provide us with information. From mid-December to mid-January we did not receive much additional data. We did receive some updates from some government departments, including Canadian Heritage and Environment and Climate Change Canada. So we have made some progress.
In my opening remarks, I mentioned some of the concerns I had about the fall fiscal and economic update, such as the lack of fiscal benchmarks and the lack of transparency on projected deficits in the employment insurance operating account. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, those concerns are still valid.
Darlene Bess
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Darlene Bess
2020-06-16 17:09
I think I'll let my colleague Brad Recker comment on that. I think he'd be able to provide some more information on that front.
Bradley Recker
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Bradley Recker
2020-06-16 17:10
Producing a budget or an update is a pretty significant amount of effort for the department. It is something, however, that we are able to do and is core to our mandate in general.
Bradley Recker
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Bradley Recker
2020-06-16 17:11
The department can and does produce both budget and fiscal updates annually.
Bradley Recker
View Bradley Recker Profile
Bradley Recker
2020-06-16 17:11
The department continually monitors the fiscal situation as it evolves. We're in constant contact with private sector forecasters, think tanks, etc. We are always working to monitor the situation.
In the current environment, there's a very high degree of uncertainty. This is evident in any of the outlooks that have been put out by international agencies and others. To that extent, putting out any sort of detailed fiscal outlook over a longer horizon would be a significantly difficult endeavour at this point.
Bradley Recker
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Bradley Recker
2020-06-16 17:12
Several provinces have gone ahead and produced budgets or near-term outlooks, but we do not have a date for an outlook for ourselves at this time.
View Bill Morneau Profile
Lib. (ON)
I completely appreciate and understand the importance of continuing to provide information to Parliament and to Canadians.
The biweekly report that you received in contemplation of this meeting, of course, details all of the measures that we've put forward. We are working to make sure that we keep updating that so that people have a very good understanding of the measures that we've put forward. Of course, we do intend to give a better understanding of our economic base. That will be able to be done as the economy gets more stable and as we get into a better position to make those understandings well known to Canadians.
View Bill Morneau Profile
Lib. (ON)
I think the challenge that we're all facing is that we are looking for certainty at a time where it's very difficult to deliver certainty. You will have seen this week that the OECD put out a forecast, but in fact, what it said is that it couldn't give us a forecast so it gave out two separate scenarios.
We're going to continue to deliver for you and for Canadians an understanding of the investments. As the situation is stable enough to provide better and more comprehensive information, we will be coming forward with that information.
View Bill Morneau Profile
Lib. (ON)
I can assure you that we have not yet decided exactly what the next steps will be, because the economy is still unstable at the moment.
We need to be very clear about our investments and forecasts. As I said, when the situation is more stable, we will have more to say about it. In my opinion, I do not have enough information to present a complete plan.
View Bill Morneau Profile
Lib. (ON)
We believe transparency is very important. That's why you received a 30-page report today outlining our measures. We're making an effort to stay transparent. This crisis is obviously still in flux, and it's hard to make projections right now. We'll be able to do more once things stabilize.
View Bill Morneau Profile
Lib. (ON)
As I mentioned in French to Gabriel, we are providing significant information to this committee, and as the situation—
View Bill Morneau Profile
Lib. (ON)
I think that what we recognize is important is that we make the kinds of investments to get us through this time period, and we do it while presenting to Canadians every step along the way exactly what we're doing so they can understand it. So—
View Bill Morneau Profile
Lib. (ON)
Well, as I was saying, we believe that it's really important for us to support Canadians during this time and to give a clear understanding of that support, including the costs of it. As that situation is more stable, there will be more information that will be provided.
View Bill Morneau Profile
Lib. (ON)
In fact, what we're doing is making sure that as we provide these supports we are providing an understanding of the programs' costs and, as you know, updating this committee—
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