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Results: 1 - 30 of 159
Yves Giroux
View Yves Giroux Profile
Yves Giroux
2021-01-27 17:12
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
We thank the committee for this invitation to appear. We are pleased to be here today to discuss our recent economic and fiscal analysis related to your study of the government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
With me today I have Xiaoyi Yan, Director, Budgetary Analysis, and Trevor Shaw, Director, Fiscal Analysis.
Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer's mandate to provide independent, non-partisan analysis to Parliament, my office has been working diligently since last March to provide parliamentarians with reliable estimates of the impacts of the unprecedented COVID-19 response spending on the government's finances and the Canadian economy. We have also published independent cost estimates of a number of components of the government's COVID-19 economic response plan.
On December 10, we released our assessment of the government's fall economic statement 2020. Our report identifies several key issues to assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, as well as updated fiscal and economic projections.
While the economic outlook presented in the fall economic statement 2020 is broadly in line with our latest projections, we project that budgetary deficits will be $5 billion larger, on average, over the next five years. These larger deficits are primarily due to weaker economic and fiscal assumptions, partly offset by lower cost estimates of measures included in the government's COVID-19 economic response plan.
In terms of transparency, the government's fall economic statement does include elements that are essential for credible fiscal planning and scrutiny, such as a detailed five-year fiscal outlook. However, the fall economic statement falls short on transparency in a few areas, such as the absence of a fiscal anchor, the lack of clear thresholds for the fiscal guardrails and the lack of detail related to the employment insurance operating account.
In addition to our report, my office has also released independent cost estimates of selected measures contained in the fall economic statement, including the Canada emergency wage subsidy and Canada emergency rent subsidy programs. We plan to publish additional cost estimates in the coming days, with three that are to be released tomorrow.
Finally, I would also like to take this opportunity to provide members with a brief update on our progress on the cost analysis of building the Canadian surface combatants and building the FREMM, the type 31e and other possible competing ships. Our analysis continues to advance, and we expect to deliver the report to this committee by the end of February, as planned.
We would be pleased to respond to any questions you may have regarding our analysis of the government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic or other PBO work.
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
View Pierre Paul-Hus Profile
CPC (QC)
If it is possible, could you send us the information you have on that? I personally have no other way of finding out more.
My next question is about the economic update. You talked a lot about transparency. In your opening statement, you mentioned again that transparency was an issue. Since you were here on December 10, have you been able to get any more information on the various expenditures in order to update your books?
Yves Giroux
View Yves Giroux Profile
Yves Giroux
2021-01-27 17:17
Actually, since December, there has not been much progress. We have had some additional information, but the holiday season was a break for a lot of people, including many of the people who usually provide us with information. From mid-December to mid-January we did not receive much additional data. We did receive some updates from some government departments, including Canadian Heritage and Environment and Climate Change Canada. So we have made some progress.
In my opening remarks, I mentioned some of the concerns I had about the fall fiscal and economic update, such as the lack of fiscal benchmarks and the lack of transparency on projected deficits in the employment insurance operating account. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, those concerns are still valid.
View Warren Steinley Profile
CPC (SK)
I'm not against my colleagues being on the screen. I'm against you guys being unaccountable.
Residents of Regina—Lewvan want to know how the government plans to pay for the programs that they've rolled out over the last few months.
View Mona Fortier Profile
Lib. (ON)
Mr. Chair, we have prioritized the health and safety of Canadians since day one. Our country is in a very strong physical position, and we will continue to support Canadians and workers—
View Warren Steinley Profile
CPC (SK)
How high will the government have to raise the GST to pay for all of their reckless spending over the last five years?
View Mona Fortier Profile
Lib. (ON)
Mr. Chair, we have been providing support and relief to Canadians since the beginning of this pandemic—
View Warren Steinley Profile
CPC (SK)
With the little time I have left, I'll leave my honourable colleagues who are currently in government a little bit of advice.
Canadians will only tolerate inaction and being left leaderless for so long. If there's a second wave and another complete lockdown that will cripple our economy and suspend people's freedoms and personal decision-making abilities, this is not going to fly with Canadians. The Prime Minister will have to find some leadership and start making some tough decisions, instead of hiding under the bed in his cottage and poking his head out just for his 10-minute daily performance.
When will the government put pen to paper and bring forward a plan that puts Canadians first and puts Canada back on track?
View Pablo Rodriguez Profile
Lib. (QC)
Mr. Chair, this government has always put Canadians first. We have been helping our seniors, our students, our families, our workers, our businesses, all Canadians from each and every province, Mr. Chair, and we'll keep on doing that because it's the right thing to do, even if they don't think so.
View Alain Rayes Profile
CPC (QC)
Mr. Chair, the Conservative Party has been asking for an economic update for weeks. The Parliamentary Budget Officer, Yves Giroux, is also asking for one. It is clear that the information the government provides to us every day through the Prime Minister himself, outside his residence, is too incomplete for us to be able to interpret it properly. The former Parliamentary Budget Officer, Kevin Page, also said so.
This morning we learned from the Prime Minister himself that there would be no economic and fiscal update, but an “economic snapshot”, a new term he invented. What we have just learned today is quite incredible.
Why wait until July, when all parliamentarians will be at home with their constituents, when Canadians and Quebeckers will be on vacation and journalists will be taking a well-deserved break? The Prime Minister is waiting for that date to provide us with information. This shows a lack of respect for all parliamentarians here and for Canadians who want the truth about the expenditures related to the measures taken by the government. Why wait?
View Bill Morneau Profile
Lib. (ON)
Mr. Chair, we have known since the beginning of the crisis that it is very important to be transparent with Canadians. That is why we have shared information every day about our investments to protect Canadians and businesses. This continues to be our approach. We have to look at the information that we have and do not have.
So our approach right now is to inform Canadians by providing this economic snapshot. July 8 is a very appropriate choice of day. As our economy and our investments cautiously recover, we will have more information. As a result, Canadians will have enough information and we will be able to make plans for the future.
View Alain Rayes Profile
CPC (QC)
I'm not making this up. Just this week, the Prime Minister said that an economic update would simply be an exercise in invention and imagination. We can understand why the Prime Minister would say such things, given that, for him, deficits are not a serious problem and budgets balance themselves. However, we don't understand how the Minister of Finance, who comes from the financial sector, would support that.
The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador provided an official economic update on June 4, 2020. Saskatchewan even tabled a budget on June 15. Quebec will do the same on Friday, June 19. On the other hand, our Prime Minister and his Minister of Finance are unable to provide us with an economic update. If this is an invention, as he says, how is it that the provinces are able to give us the facts so that all parliamentarians here in the House can make the appropriate decisions?
View Bill Morneau Profile
Lib. (ON)
I think members know that we are in a crisis right now. We are dealing with a very dynamic economic situation. We have to look at the 10 provinces and the three territories to see how we can adequately deal with the current situation. That is our approach. A cautious reopening will help us be better informed. We will then be able to analyze our current situation. That will provide a lot of information to Canadians. It is very important in terms of planning for the future.
View Ben Lobb Profile
CPC (ON)
View Ben Lobb Profile
2020-06-17 13:44
The minister is welcome to come back to Huron—Bruce any time she likes and give that answer to pork farmers, or just farmers in general. They will not like the answer she has provided them.
I have a question for the finance minister, if possible. I think we know where the expenditures are roughly going to be for this year. They're going to be in the neighbourhood of $600 billion-plus. I wonder if he has had an opportunity to take a look at what next year's expenditure would be. I wouldn't ask him about revenue, because that is going to be a little difficult to look at.
However, on the expenditure side, does he have a range that he could provide the House today?
View Bill Morneau Profile
Lib. (ON)
Madam Chair, we will continue to provide updates to the House and to Canadians on the spending we're doing in order to support them and to support enterprises to get through this time.
We have provided details to the House of Commons finance committee on our expenditures to date. Of course, we will continue to support Canadians. The measure of that support will be directly related to the challenges they are facing, and that will follow the health outcomes in our economy.
View James Cumming Profile
CPC (AB)
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Thank you to all the officials who are here today for the work you put in to create these estimates. In fact, I think I complimented all of you when the minister was here by saying that you're a very talented crew.
Given that we have this very talented crew, can you describe for me as a new parliamentarian how difficult it would be, given the work that's been put into these estimates, to produce either a budget or a budget update?
Darlene Bess
View Darlene Bess Profile
Darlene Bess
2020-06-16 17:09
I think I'll let my colleague Brad Recker comment on that. I think he'd be able to provide some more information on that front.
View James Cumming Profile
CPC (AB)
Sure. Given the work that's been put into these estimates, how difficult would it be for the department to produce either a budget or a financial update so that we have a better understanding of the bigger picture of what's going on?
Bradley Recker
View Bradley Recker Profile
Bradley Recker
2020-06-16 17:10
Producing a budget or an update is a pretty significant amount of effort for the department. It is something, however, that we are able to do and is core to our mandate in general.
View James Cumming Profile
CPC (AB)
In addition to these estimates, the main budget and the supplementary estimates, do you believe that you'd be in a position to create a budget and/or a financial update?
Bradley Recker
View Bradley Recker Profile
Bradley Recker
2020-06-16 17:11
The department can and does produce both budget and fiscal updates annually.
View James Cumming Profile
CPC (AB)
For the last hundred years of Parliament, we've always had one each fiscal year. Is it something that you're currently working on?
Bradley Recker
View Bradley Recker Profile
Bradley Recker
2020-06-16 17:11
The department continually monitors the fiscal situation as it evolves. We're in constant contact with private sector forecasters, think tanks, etc. We are always working to monitor the situation.
In the current environment, there's a very high degree of uncertainty. This is evident in any of the outlooks that have been put out by international agencies and others. To that extent, putting out any sort of detailed fiscal outlook over a longer horizon would be a significantly difficult endeavour at this point.
View James Cumming Profile
CPC (AB)
We have seen other governments do it and have seen provinces do it, so it strikes me as something that could be done.
Bradley Recker
View Bradley Recker Profile
Bradley Recker
2020-06-16 17:12
Several provinces have gone ahead and produced budgets or near-term outlooks, but we do not have a date for an outlook for ourselves at this time.
View Andrew Scheer Profile
CPC (SK)
Mr. Chair, the Prime Minister is bragging about accountability and transparency. Will he table an economic update before the House rises?
View Justin Trudeau Profile
Lib. (QC)
Mr. Chair, throughout this unprecedented pandemic, we have been open and transparent about all of the measures we've put forward. We've updated the finance committee—
View Cathy McLeod Profile
CPC (BC)
Mr. Chair, it was really a surprise in the middle of a pandemic to see the Prime Minister at his first campaign stop last week in Ottawa. Certainly the game plan has become very transparent. He has a daily report show and he wants to sideline Parliament, dominate the news cycle and keep everyone in the dark about the state of the economy.
According to the Parliamentary Budget Officer, there is no reason that he cannot provide the fiscal update during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the PBO has published a number of reports himself.
Why won't the Prime Minister provide a fiscal update so we can all understand the state of our economy, or is that just not part of his campaign playbook?
View Mona Fortier Profile
Lib. (ON)
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Canada's economy is in a period of extraordinary uncertainty due to COVID-19. We've been clear about that.
We will continue to be open and transparent about the actions that we are taking to support families, businesses, workers, our health care system and our economy. This includes biweekly reports to Parliament on the full cost and status of our economic measures. Once it is possible to provide a clear economic projection, we will provide an update.
We are in this together, and we are prepared to do whatever is necessary to support Canadians.
View Cathy McLeod Profile
CPC (BC)
Chair, Canada's economy was in trouble prior to the COVID, with some of the worst numbers since 2009. Government revenues in March dropped by 7.2%, and it's shameful and, quite frankly, it's outrageous that they refuse to provide Parliament and Canadians with an economic update.
Households during this challenging time know how much money is coming in and they know how much money is going out. The picture is not pretty, but they know what the picture is.
Can the finance minister at least reveal the projected revenue decline in quarters one and two?
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